Manchester United currently occupy the 11th position in the Premier League table, which has led to discussions regarding their performance under Erik ten Hag.
Despite ranking among the top five in key attacking metrics, Manchester United have struggled to convert expected goals into actual goals. This inefficiency has left them in the bottom half of the table after the first five games of the season. Erik ten Hag expressed his frustration following a 1-1 draw with FC Twente in the Europa League, noting that his side lacked 99 per cent effort.
The team’s defensive performance has also seen improvement, with the number of shots faced per match nearly halved compared to last season. Only five clubs have faced fewer shots this term. Meanwhile, United lead the league with 59 interceptions.
Manchester United would significantly improve their position based on expected goals (xG). According to the expected Premier League table, they would jump six places to fifth, just three points behind Manchester City. Currently, United are the league’s joint-biggest underachievers in terms of the difference between actual and expected league positions, alongside Southampton.
Last season, despite overachieving based on their xG, Manchester United finished eighth, which was their worst finish in the Premier League era. Their xG numbers placed them 14th, just 15 points above the relegation zone. This season, United have scored five goals fewer than expected based on the quality of chances created. Only Southampton have a worse differential in this regard.
The root of the problem lies in United’s inability to convert big chances. The team has missed a league-high of 17 big chances, five more than any other side. Bruno Fernandes, for example, has an xG of 1.86 but has yet to score, while Joshua Zirkee and Alejandro Garnacho have each scored only once despite having opportunities to score at least twice.
Conversely, Amad Diallo has been a standout performer in terms of creating chances, which has earned him ample game time early in the campaign. Marcus Rashford also ended a goal drought by scoring in recent matches, but his inconsistency remains a concern. Despite having started centrally in the Carabao Cup for almost 30 per cent of his game time under ten Hag, there are still question marks over whether he should occupy the regular No 9 role.
The defensive line has also been unstable, with no centre-back partnership clocking over 500 league minutes together since the start of last season. The most frequently used pairing had been Jonny Evans and Raphael Varane, but Varane retired recently.
Financially, ten Hag has substantial backing. INEOS supported his continued leadership after a summer review, and significant investments have been made, with £616.8m spent on signings during his tenure. Only Chelsea have outspent United in this period. Furthermore, the current squad’s assembly cost is around £888m, again second only to Chelsea.
Ten Hag now faces a critical period with upcoming matches against Tottenham, Porto, and Aston Villa. Historically adept at weathering challenges, the Dutch manager hopes his team will start converting clear-cut chances into goals, reflecting their underlying performance metrics.
As Manchester United navigate their current struggles, the focus will be on translating positive attacking metrics into tangible points. The coming weeks will be crucial for Erik ten Hag and his squad.
